Rise in Sea Levels: Fate of Small and Mid-sized Coastal Cities
/This Nagrikal Series examines the relationship between climate change and cities, especially small and mid-sized cities. The series attempts to explore the dual roles of such cities- cities as contributors to and sufferers of climate change.
We discuss some of the important impacts of climate change, like poor air quality, rising sea levels, rising temperatures, and increasing heatwaves. It serves as an explainer of how climate change induces these impacts in our cities. Highlighting the limited share of knowledge about small cities, climate data availability, and monitoring, this series urges us to rethink the future of small cities in the face of climate change. By bringing forth the facts and figures that are less talked about, we hope to shift the discourse from our current understanding in an effort to build resilient small cities.
From defining the role of cities, especially the smaller cities, in climate change to exploring the share of such cities in research studies, climate data availability, and monitoring, the series aligns with our objective of creating knowledge for smaller cities to drive meaningful action. The series is divided into four parts. Part one explains the relationship between cities and climate change; Part two talks about the declining air quality in small cities; Part three focuses on the rise in temperatures and heatwaves; and Part four highlights the cities that are at risk of sea level rise. Parts two, three, and four use small cities as case studies to explain the consequences of the respective impacts. Some of the key insights and findings from each of the parts are shared in the next section.
We invite readers to engage with the findings of this report and join us in the collective effort to reimagine the future of small cities in the face of climate change. We believe that stakeholders at every level can make a significant change by utilising the insights provided in this publication. By understanding the city specific challenges, let us co-create innovative solutions to combat climate change impacts for a sustainable and resilient future.
We hope that this report will not just inform but also initiate a conversation about the challenges faced by small cities with regards to climate change in the policy discourse and climate action strategies, which is currently missing.
Report Summary & Key Insights
Accelerated Sea Level Rise:
Climate change, primarily driven by human activity, is accelerating the sea level rise globally. In December 2023, sea level was 104 mm above 1993’s measure, which reveals the unprecedented rate at which the sea level is currently rising.
This is the result of a two-way effect, attributed to both the thermal expansion of seawater and melting of ice sheets and glaciers. In recent decades, the latter has become a more dominant contributor.
Impact on India’s Smaller Coastal Cities:
Sea level rise poses significant threats like erosion, flooding, and groundwater contamination in coastal cities worldwide, along with the loss of vegetation and aquatic life. India’s coastal cities, particularly smaller and mid-sized ones like Kochi and Visakhapatnam, face imminent risks of inundation and infrastructure damage.
There are around 113 Indian cities spread across nine states that are at risk of getting submerged due to sea level rise by 2050. This report highlights that out of these, 109 are small and mid-sized coastal cities!
Most of the vulnerable cities are located in Gujarat and Kerala, where coastal erosion is occurring at a high rate. In India, rural areas situated near the coastline are also at risk of getting submerged.
Increasing Extreme Weather Events:
Rising sea levels contribute to the intensification of extreme weather events like cyclonic storms. Our report points out how such events are occurring more frequently and with greater intensity, exacerbating the vulnerabilities of coastal communities.
It is projected that, with the current trends, the heating of the Indian Ocean is likely to increase 4 to 8 times more by 2100! Therefore, category 4 or 5 storms may become relatively more common in the future for India’s coastal cities.
Data Monitoring and Policy Responses:
Collecting and maintaining sea level rise data is a complex process compared to monitoring air quality and temperature data. Continuous data availability for several decades is a necessity in this case.
While tide gauges and satellite altimeters provide valuable data, there are challenges in terms of functionality and coverage. Furthermore, real time data on sea level is currently available only for 29 small and mid-sized cities. This is concerning, as our research reveals that there are 109 small and mid-sized cities at risk of submergence.
This report also highlights the knowledge gaps that exist in research regarding sea level rise, with the majority of it focusing on Mumbai.
India has been implementing the Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) Plan to manage coastal areas through participatory initiatives at various organisational levels. However, this report highlights the need for studies at regional and local level, along with coastal regulations that cannot be easily compromised upon.
